NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 1/TROPICAL DEPRESSION (96B) | DATE: 06 DEC 2022 | DAY: TUESDAY | TIME: 10:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
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As of Tuesday evening BST, the “Tropical Depression(96B)” has intensified more over Southeast adjoining East Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing good rotations with deep convection sheared to t tohe west of the mostly obscured Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 930km ESE of Chennai, India.
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★WINDS(1MIN AVG):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 9pm Today is 50km/h.
Gusting up to 65km/h.
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★DYNAMIC ANALYSIS:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in favourable environment due to low to moderate VWS(10-15kt), excellent outflow, favourable SST (29°C), good lower level vorticity, moisture supply, Strong CCKW, Weak MJO(RMM) and relevant atmospheric parameters.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify gradually into a Deep Depression during next 6-12hrs & into a Cyclonic Storm within next 12-24hrs.
Then, It is likely to intensify slightly & maintain Cyclonic Storm(≤85kph) intensity until 8th Dec & weaken thereafter due to rising shear.
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•With the above atmospheric condition, the storm is likely to peak near 75-85kph(~1min) with gusting up to 100kph.
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★MOVEMENT:-
It has moved on westward direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 20km/h.
*From the present location, it could move WNW towards Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coast and intensify gradually.
Post 8th Dec, the storm could weaken but reach coast with holding intensity of a Deep Depression/minimal CS.
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★LANDFALL:-
It could cross TN-AP coast near Chennai as a Deep Depression or minimal Cyclonic Storm by 10th Dec.
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★WARNING:–
Tamil Nadu & South Andhra coast could experience 50-65kph winds with gusting up to 85kph during 9-10 Dec 2022. Then, winds could reduce gradually.
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★ADVISORY:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the South West Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 4/5days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan close to the system track for the given period.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “South East coastal India including Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu could have moderate to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 9-11/12 Dec 2022. While Eastern India & Bangladesh could have partly to mostly cloudy skies.
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★NOTE: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, Sea Surface Temperature, MJO, WWB, EWB, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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